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Coronation Research issues 2019 Economic Outlook for Nigeria, titled ‘A Tale of Two Halves’

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OIn its 2019 economic outlook report titled “A Tale of Two Halves”, Coronation Research – industry-leader and a subsidiary of Coronation Asset Management Limited–believes the narrative for the Nigerian economy in 2019is largely hinged around the performance of the oil.

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Speaking on the report, Guy Czatoryski, Head of Coronation Research said: “We forecast an average US$58.00/bbl for 2019. An average much below this means the CBN will have to keep rates very high and could even challenge the Naira / US dollar exchange argument. An average much about US$60.00/bbl means the CBN will have confidence its reserve position and will be able to cut rates later in the year, in Q4, less likely Q3.

The current rate of N365.29/US$1, or close to it, is likely to prevail this year. The CBN’s policy is to defend the rate and with reserves at US$43.0bn, it is in a strong position to do so.  We think the CBN will supply US dollars to the FX markets at an average rate of US$500m per month during 2019.  This is compatible with maintaining a strong reserve level

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If, as we think, the oil prices will average US$58.00/bbl this year, then we think the CBN will want to keep interest rates high. It will do this through its open market operations (OMO).  We think OMOs will be issued in a range of 17.00% to 19.00% and that T-bill rates will be very close to this level during 2019.

We look at Nigeria in the international context of interest rates. Nigerian T-bill rates look competitive in the context of other emerging market rates – which is why the CBN is having success in attracting inflows of Foreign Portfolio Investment

However, if oil trades at substantially above US$60.00/bbl during 2019 then foreign investors in T-bills will be encouraged and the CBN might well be in a position to cut rates in Q4 2019, or even in Q3 2019

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This could be helped by a downtrend in inflation. Inflation has proved stubborn and has trended at around 11.00% over the past few months. But if inflation trends, in 2019, towards the CBN’s target band of 6.00% to 9.00%, then it will help the CBN cut rates in order to stimulate the economy.

We are agnostic on politics. However, there is some evidence that in the period after general elections (2011 and 2015) yields in the T-bill market tend to fall. This might help persuade the CBN to cut OMO rates later in the year.

According to the report, GDP growth is expected to be 2.25% in 2019, as a result of very weak consumer demand, and a lack of growth in government expenditure relative to the 2018 budget.

Banks are unlikely to post large gains in profits this year. They are unlikely to experience much loan growth, given the weak economy and the fact that they can benefit from high T-bill yields. On the other hand, bank stocks are cheap in historical terms.  So, if interest rates come down later in the year and the market conditions improve, then there could be a sharp rally in bank stocks later in the year.

Coronation Research is a subsidiary of Coronation Asset Management; a leading financial services company, licensed and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Nigeria.

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Sahara weekly online is published by First Sahara weekly international. contact saharaweekly@yahoo.com

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NNPC cautions motorists, others against panic buying

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NNPC cautions motorists, others against panic buying

NNPC cautions motorists, others against panic buying

 

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited has warned motorists and the public against panic buying of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly referred to as petrol.

In a statement signed by the Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC Ltd., Olufemi Soneye, on Tuesday, he said the corporation emphasised that the supply and distribution of petrol across the nation have witnessed significant improvements.

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According to Soneye, NNPC officials have conducted thorough monitoring of filling stations in various states, including Lagos and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), where the queues have notably decreased.

He reassured the public that this positive trend will continue to expand to other states in the coming days.

 

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The statement reads, “The Company wishes to state that at the moment, it has over 1.5 billion litres stock of PMS, which is equivalent to over 30 days sufficiency.

 

 

The NNPC Ltd. is also collaborating with relevant downstream agencies, such as the Nigeran Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), labour unions in the sector and security operatives, to address hoarding and other unwholesome practices.”

The move, according to Soneye, underscores NNPC’s commitment to ensuring a steady supply of petrol across the country and mitigating any potential disruptions in the fuel distribution chain.

 

 

Earlier, NNPCL said it has addressed concerns that surround the current scarcity of Premium Motor Spirit.

It added that the scarcity in certain regions of the country stems from logistical challenges, which have since been resolved.

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Integrated System and Devices Limited Achieves IMS Certification

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Integrated System and Devices Limited Achieves IMS Certification

Integrated System and Devices Limited Achieves IMS Certification

 

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Integrated System and Devices Limited (ISDL), a major provider of electronic security solutions, is delighted to announce the successful attainment of ISO 14001:2015 and ISO 45001:2018 certifications following a rigorous audit process conducted by Bureau Veritas Certification Holdings SAS-UK Branch.

 

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In 2021, ISDL bagged the Quality management systems ISO 9001:2015, and now in 2024, with unwavering dedication to customer satisfaction, the occupational Health and Safety system ISO 45001:2018 and the Environmental management system ISO 14001:2015 have been consolidated to form an Integrated Management System.

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Integrated System and Devices Limited Achieves IMS Certification

 

These certifications, covering ISDL’s headquarters and branches, signify the company’s unwavering commitment to upholding the highest standards of quality management across all facets of its operations. According to Engr. Oluseun Mabogunje, the Managing Director of ISDL, the scope of the certifications encompasses the design, procurement, supply, installation, integration, maintenance, and after-sales support of various electronic security and Extra Low Voltage (ELV) equipment.

Engr. Mabogunje expressed his elation at receiving the IMS certifications, emphasizing ISDL’s dedication to delivering exceptional quality and service to its clientele. He emphasized that this achievement underscores the company’s ongoing pursuit of continuous improvement and customer satisfaction.

ISO 9001:2015, ISO 14001:2015, and ISO 45001:2018 are internationally recognized standards for Quality, Occupational Health & Safety and Environmental management systems, emphasizing a process-based approach to meeting customer requirements and enhancing satisfaction, protecting the environment and also providing safe and healthy working conditions to prevent work-related injuries and illnesses among our employees, contractors and visitors. ISDL’s certification demonstrates its ability to consistently provide products and services that not only meet regulatory requirements but also exceed customer expectations.

Engr. Mabogunje extended profound gratitude to the workforce for their contribution to this achievement, attributing it to their team spirit and unwavering dedication to hard work, resilience and excellence. He urged the staff to continue offering top-notch services to their clients.

About Integrated System and Devices Limited (ISDL):
Integrated System & Devices Limited (ISDL), incorporated in 1988, is a leading provider of Electronic Low Voltage(ELV) and Security systems, that provides a total turnkey service for the design, supply, installation and continued effectiveness of security systems for medium and high-risk locations. ISDL has over 30 years’ history in the delivery of professional electronic security services in integration, maintenance and after sales support of various electronic security and related equipment. ISDL has her head Office in Lagos, and two branch offices in Abuja and Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

For more information about ISDL, please visit www.isdlnig.com

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ZENITH BANK SHOWS CONTINUED MARKET LEADERSHIP WITH 189% GROWTH IN Q1 EARNINGS

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ZENITH BANK SHOWS CONTINUED MARKET LEADERSHIP WITH 189% GROWTH IN Q1 EARNINGS

ZENITH BANK SHOWS CONTINUED MARKET LEADERSHIP WITH 189% GROWTH IN Q1 EARNINGS

 

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Zenith Bank Plc has announced its unaudited results for the first quarter ended 31st March 2024, with an impressive triple-digit growth of 189% in Gross Earnings, from ₦270 billion reported in Q1 2023 to ₦781 billion in Q1 2024. This is despite the challenging operating environment and tightening monetary policy stance.

 

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From the unaudited statement of account submitted to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Friday, 3rd May 2024, this impressive growth in the topline also enhanced the bottom line, as profit before tax (PBT) rose to ₦320 billion in Q1 2024, representing an increase of 270% from the ₦87 billion reported in Q1 2023. Profit after tax (PAT) equally grew significantly by 291% from the ₦66 billion reported in Q1 2023 to ₦258 billion in the current period.

 

 

 

Interest and non-interest income contributed significantly to the growth in gross earnings. Interest income grew by 155% from the ₦192 billion reported in the quarter ended March 2023 to ₦489 billion in the period to 31 March 2024. The growth in interest income is due to the repricing of risk assets, owing to the increase in the central bank’s Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which currently stands at 24.75%. The growth in net interest income is primarily due to the increase in fees and commissions as well as trading grains.

The Group reported an impairment charge of ₦56 billion for Q1 2024, up from ₦8 billion recorded in Q1 2023. This is attributable to significant growth in risk assets, primarily driven by the revaluation of its USD loans, which necessitated additional impairment on the bank’s foreign currency-denominated loans.

The cost of funds grew by 48% from 2.7% in Q1 2023 to 4% in Q1 2024 due to the high-interest rate environment, while interest expense increased by 157% from ₦71 billion reported in Q1 2023 to ₦182 billion in the period to March 2024. Notwithstanding the year-on-year (YoY) increase in interest expense, net interest margin (NIM) grew by 20% from 6.9% in the 3 months ended March 2023 to 8.3% in the current period ending 31 March 2024. Return on Average Equity (ROAE) and Return on Average Assets (ROAA) increased year-on-year (YoY) by 114% and 119%, respectively, due to improved profitability.

Gross loans, which are largely funded by customer deposits, grew by 30% from ₦7.1 trillion in December 2023 to ₦9.2 trillion in March 2024. Customer deposits also grew by 11% from ₦15.2 trillion in December 2023 to ₦16.8 trillion in March 2024, underpinning continued customer confidence in the Zenith brand. Total assets increased by 19% to ₦24 trillion within the same period.

The Group has consistently maintained all prudential ratios well above the minimum regulatory requirement. At the end of Q1 2024, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and Liquidity Ratio stood at 20% and 67%, respectively, demonstrating the Group’s ability to maintain a strong and liquid balance sheet.

The Group is making progress on the planned capital raise to support future growth and is very optimistic about meeting the new minimum capital requirements in line with the CBN’s recapitalisation directive. As the Group accelerates migration to its new technology architecture and also transitions into a holding company, it remains poised to maximise value for all stakeholders.

 

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